8 billion bushels the course had fallen 3In France photovoltaics is fire all woodWe employ directly more than 2000 people in ChinaUnemployment benefits are almost nonexistentTurkey in wolves BRGM is has been that of feathersBut there are still nearly 150 bodies of notation in the worldOf course everything will depend on the newsBut it is the price to pay when there is highendAMF wishes today to a lowering of the threshold to 30Remains a last Nugget financial servicesThe speech of the President of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, was not offered a respite to the dollar. Yet, last night, he found that us growth would return to his pace to cruise in 2007, after a passage vacuum bound to the downturn of the real estate market. Ben Bernanke reiterated also that core inflation "remained uncomfortably high", and that it would be "particularly worrying" that she managed not to slow down
However, the greenback continued to back up after his speech, particularly against the euro, falling to 1,3208 dollar to the euro its lowest level since March 22, 2005 early evening before returning to 1,3203.
While investors now fear a brutal slowdown in the US economy, on a background of real estate crisis, the figures disclosed housing sales yesterday, yet were better than expected. Existing housing sales thus increased by 0.5 in October, 6.24 million, while a decline in sales was expected. This figure has slowed the decline of the dollar late in the afternoon, but was not enough. Other statistics released yesterday, a little earlier in the day, were less good than expected.
The index of us consumer confidence measured by the Conference Board has thus clearly declined in November, falling to 102.9 against 105.1 the previous month, while an increase was expected on a background of falling prices of oil, soaring stock market and lower unemployment. Moreover, orders for durable goods fell in October, of 8.3, particularly due to lower sales of Boeing.
Serenity of the ECB
But even excluding transportation, durable goods orders fell ( 1.7). "This indicates that the economic slowdown is perhaps spread to companies, which is worrisome for growth," commented James Knightley, an economist at ING. He believes that the US Federal Reserve will have to lower interest rates, to cope with the coup of brake. In this context, more and more operators of markets are betting on a relaxation of monetary policy. 40 of them now expect a decrease in the rate of the US Federal Reserve in March 2007, if the futures markets, while they were not such fall 10 days ago.
Since then, several statistics noting a slowdown in the US economy have been published, while the force of economic growth is confirmed in Europe. The European Central Bank (ECB) continued to suggest that she was going, she raise rates. A situation which has supported the euro against the dollar.
Serenity displayed by the Finance Ministers Europeans on the growth of the euro against the dollar at the end of their meeting Monday night, has also helped support the European currency yesterday. It left assuming that they do not go up the niche to the lower. "We believe that the current exchange rate does for the moment no unfortunate consequences," said the President of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker. The OECD has estimated yesterday that the ECB could raise rates until... 2008.
In this environment, the decline of the dollar, particularly against the euro, will continue in the coming months, economists and strategists. "The dollar should continue to crumble in the short term, on bottom of US slowdown and European growth," judge Bruno Cavalier, Economist at Credit Agricole. The research of the Société Générale team table on a decline in the greenback, 1.32 dollar for the euro by the end of the year. BNP Paribas strategists also see the dollar at 1.32 dollar at the end of the year, before a retreat to 1.35 dollar in the first quarter of 2007, and 1.40 in the second quarter.
