Internally it is a decision in SeptemberAn activist even asked the drafting of a manifestThey were 130000 Native from free fatherlandThe result is that Enel now produces only 33 of the electricity in ItalyTheir social utility cannot go hand in hand with a bloated stock market liquidity3 billion pounds according to Merrill LynchSome 100 million of these machines have elapsed in the world He grows a lateralism form over functionThe election does not guarantee democracyPassersby bulge eye or burst out laughingThis is a first since March 2007. Indeed, yesterday in Paris, the Organization of cooperation and development (OECD) noted its growth forecasts for its member countries. If 2009 will be a contraction of GDP by 4.1 of the Member countries, 2010 should see growth of 0.7 against a 0.1 decline expected in March. Only flat, Europe will not be at the forefront of the movement of recovery that will come from the United States and emerging countries such as China.
The Secretary-General of the Organization, Angel Gurria, in commenting on these new forecasts, was more explicit. The euro area is one of the few economic spaces where growth prospects 2009 still were lowered to March forecasts ( 4.8 instead of 4.1). In the United States, the Organization economists made their predictions of a decline of 4 of GDP in 2009 (March) to a decline to 2.8. This difference in appreciation between the two economies of part and of the Atlantic is explained by several factors.
Operation truth
First, the magnitude of stimulus, more massive in the United States (5.6 of GDP) and Europe (0.7 in France, 3.2 in Germany or Italy 0, off economic stabilizers). "Europe consists of a patchwork of States where the stimulus plans decided at national level have been more modest," said Angel Gurria. This plus the American economy more flexible and responsive and an attitude of European consumers much more cautious as evidenced by the high level of their savings. Also, for the euro zone, the OECD advises a new lowering of interest rates of the European Central Bank, the maintenance of its non-conventional monetary policy and especially the maintenance of fiscal stimulus, if the adoption of new measures for countries with margins of manoeuvre. In this regard, Angel Gurria is concerned about the Germany fiscal consolidation projects and calls on the Government to not hastily withdraw these support measures. Another difference of brand share and across the Atlantic: financial transparency. While the United States conducted an operation truth on the accounts of the banks by publishing the results of tests of strength ("stress tests"), the euro area currently performs this work and wondered about the fact or not to publish these results. For Chief Economist Jurgen Elmeskov, OECD acting, there is no doubt that transparency will help to stabilise the markets and contribute to financial consolidation underway.
Cautious optimism
In the end, the evolution of the global economy provides compassionate "cautiously optimistic" but he can't "relax", summarized Angel Gurria. In the first category, he noted "the improvement in the financial markets" and the matter of confidence of the business community. Black point: "world trade is expected to decline 16 this year and unemployment will continue to increase to 10 of the active population at the end of 2010", has notified the Secretary General. In any event, the world economy will be not free of this crisis. In a special chapter, the Organization has embarked to predict the evolution of the growth on the horizon of 2017. In commenting on this exercise, Jurgen Elmeskov stressed that global potential production would be amputated about 3 points of GDP, including declining investment and an increase in the cost of capital. An additional element for a slow recovery.
