8 per cent of GDP in 2007 has risen to 68

He had come to break with the past and launch the France in the future, it is plunged back fifteen years back, with two old French disease: unemployment and the deficit. Her activism, her lightness of Hussar, corresponded to the challenge of reform offensive. At least that was the meaning of the French vote, two years ago. Nicolas Sarkozy has the qualities to become head of the Hospital of war surgeon, during the three years remaining on his five-year

Unemployment declined since 2006, he was soaring. The recession mowing net 80,000 to 100,000 jobs per month. At this rate, the jobless rate approaches 10 at year end and it will rise to 11 in 2010, according to the OECD. The France will be so close to 3 million unemployed, historic record. The public finance deficit increased from 2.7 of GDP in 2007 to 3.4 in 2008. It will slide over 6 in 2009 and will approach 8 in 2010. Historical record also. The public debt, 63.8 per cent of GDP in 2007, has risen to 68.1 in 2008 and may weigh 80 in 2010, pulverized historical record.

The France is not alone in this drama. All countries are affected by the crisis, the worst since 1929. Unemployment will have doubled in the United States in three years up to 10.3 in 2010. In Europe, it would reach an average of 11.7 per cent of the workforce in 2010, according to the OECD.

In rich countries, the costs of stimulus, plans to rescue banks and play of the automatic stabilizers (loss of fiscal revenue and increase of social allowances) will increase the debt of 20 points of GDP, according to Laurence Boone, Barclays Capital Economist. She announced: "the public finances will become the subject of the next few years." () But the France is singular to be as of affection for these two afflictions, his "preference" for unemployment and debt. While other countries had come to end, it had barely started to reduce. Unemployment, it said, not retreat since 2006. Public accounts are in the red for thirty-five years and austerity is considered a dirty word. Is that since 2006, same date, debt retracts and at snail speed yet.

Can us again twenty years back, we heal this time more quickly our old diseases Step easily. The situation will improve in the second part of the year or in early 2010 but it does not seem to have to start securely. A repeat of the great depression was averted, but growth will remain very weak for many reasons including two main: failover of American consumers to savings and the powerlessness of Governments (the truth of their lack of willingness) to quickly clean the banks balance sheets. However, slow growth is not enough to leave employment and to reduce deficits.

Patrick Artus, Chief Economist of Natixis, feared "a vicious circle": low growth widening debt, which force to increase taxes, which reduces the growth of "potential", etc. He asks stimulus plans that increase research and development and strengthen new industries but deplored the fact that the France has spent too much of his billion to rebuild roads and roundabouts.

In addition, adds Laurence Boone taking stock of the first two years of the quinquennium: "the ambitions of departure of the structural reforms have been revised downward" and the "potential" of French growth is not increased, then even the cost of these reforms was much swollen.

In other words, the France is not found in a better position than ten years ago. The Government boasts of good management of the crisis, pragmatic and "stupidity" which allowed the country to suffer a little less than others. Perhaps. But the challenge will be, tomorrow, any other: avoid that it remains weak even ten years. The new fight against the old diseases will impose a clear order against unemployment, for the moment the Government knows what to do, and strong against debt medicines while he still believes in homeopathy.